USDA Foreign Ag Service Santiago (Post) projects that in MY 2026/27 Chile’s production of almonds and walnuts will increase by 3% (to 170,000 MT) and 7.3% (to 10,250 MT) respectively. Despite continued reduction in planted area and a high probability of strong El Niño events, favorable yields amid positive climactic and soil conditions have benefited both crops leading up to the start of the MY. With relatively stable domestic consumption, Post projects almond imports in MY 2026/27 at 4,750 MT, a 5% decrease year-on-year, driven by improved production prospects and sustained demand.
Production
While Post projects walnut planted area to decrease 3.5% to 40,323 hectares following a three-year downward trend, this will be more than compensated by improved yields amid favorable climatic and soil conditions. Industry sources indicate that the abundant rainfall registered during the winter season in the central and north-central regions of Chile will ensure abundant water reserves for irrigation and improved soil conditions.
However, the high probability of a strong El Niño could result in heavy rains, frosts and abnormal temperatures during the spring flowering and pollination season (September-October 2026) creating conditions for humidity-related disease, principally walnut blight. The risk of extreme climatic conditions limits Post’s upward projections and could potentially further downgrade them subject to the severity and timing of the events.
The national walnut production area has continued to decrease. Production area totaled 41,722 hectares in MY 2025/26 reflecting a 5.2 percent decrease from MY 2024/25 and a 9.8 percent decrease from the 46,232 hectares peak reached in MY 2022/23. The decline in area planted is linked to market conditions: mainly reduced international prices, increased domestic costs affecting producer margins, urban development in areas adjacent to cities, and competition from more profitable crops such as cherries, lemons and mandarins.
The decrease in planted area has occurred in parallel to a geographical relocation of production from the central regions to the south. Over the past three years, area planted in the center (Metropolitana, O’Higgins) and center-north (Coquimbo, Valparaiso) regions has decreased in favor of the center-south (Maule) and southern regions (Ñuble, Bio Bio). The center-south and southern regions together now add to almost one third of the total area planted. The Metropolitana region continues to be the main walnut producing region with 14,265 hectares equivalent to 34.2 percent of the national planted area, followed by Maule (22.5 percent), O’Higgins (17.6 percent), and Valparaiso (12.7%).
Medium- to longer- term, Post expects walnut production to stabilize at a lower overall level, subject to market conditions. Improvements in productivity through the use of technologies (mechanization, irrigation, grafts), higher tree densities, and on-farm phytosanitary management have resulted in yield improvements and allowed for production to remain high despite the decrease in planted area. However, deteriorating market conditions over the past four years have reduced incentives for varietal change and orchard replacement. Currently industry estimates that 97 percent of production is of the Chandler varietal, and the remaining 3 percent are Serr and Howard. In addition, the average age of orchards is increasing with a large proportion having already reached their peak production. The gradual relocation of production towards the south may also introduce higher yield volatility as southern plantation areas are more susceptible to humidity-related disease and frost.
Read the full USDA Foreign Ag Service report here.
— Story by Eduardo Sanchez, USDA Foreign Ag Service